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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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"January's results point to stabilization rather than ongoing major drag from the prior shutdown." The bear case relied on the "lagged effects" of the government shutdown and 2025 data revisions causing a recession. The speaker confirms the labor market is resilient (Unemployment down to 4.3%, Participation up). Stabilization supports broad equity valuations. Risk-on for the broader market as recession fears recede. Inflation re-accelerating due to a tight labor market. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Job Freeze? January Data Says No | Present...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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"Corporations have announced layoffs, but much of that impact has been viewed as shifting of positions and redirecting resources elsewhere." The market feared an "AI Job Freeze" (stagnation). The data proves companies are not shrinking; they are pivoting. "Redirecting resources" means cutting legacy costs to buy more GPU compute and AI software. This confirms the Capex Supercycle is still active. Bullish for the primary beneficiaries of this resource redirection (Hardware and Hyperscalers). Disappointment in AI ROI leading to a pause in corporate spending. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Job Freeze? January Data Says No | Present...
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Feb 17, 2026
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LONG
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"AI appears to be boosting construction jobs, as there was a 33,000 uptick in construction jobs." The speaker explicitly links the construction boom to AI. This implies massive capital expenditure on physical infrastructure (Data Centers, Power Grids) is trickling down to the labor market. If jobs are growing here, the demand for heavy machinery (Caterpillar) and raw materials (Nucor/Steel) remains robust. Long the physical infrastructure enablers of the AI revolution. High interest rates slowing down project financing; supply chain bottlenecks. |
Bloomberg Markets
AI Job Freeze? January Data Says No | Present...
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Feb 13, 2026
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SHORT
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"If rate hikes happen, Japanese financials win from wider margins while real estate... face pressure from higher borrowing costs." This is a classic rate-cycle rotation. Banks benefit immediately from the ability to charge higher interest (Net Interest Margin expansion), while Real Estate (a highly levered sector) suffers from increased cost of capital. LONG Financials and SHORT Real Estate to play the divergence caused by the BoJ's normalization policy. The BoJ pauses hikes unexpectedly, or the economy slows down so much that loan demand collapses. |
Bloomberg Markets
Which Direction for Japan’s Economy? | Presen...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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The presenter notes that "exporters face pressure from... yen strength" as rates push toward 1.25%. As the BoJ hikes rates while other global central banks (like the Fed) are cutting or holding, the interest rate differential narrows, naturally driving capital flows back into the Yen. LONG JPY (or Short USD/JPY) as the policy gap closes. If the BoJ remains dovish or US rates stay higher for longer, the Yen carry trade may persist. |
Bloomberg Markets
Which Direction for Japan’s Economy? | Presen...
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Feb 13, 2026
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WATCH
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"Japan's 250% debt to GDP ratio creates serious fiscal vulnerability if bond yields spike on aggressive tightening." The sheer size of Japan's debt load means that even small increases in yields significantly increase debt servicing costs, potentially creating a sovereign debt feedback loop. WATCH JGB yields closely; a disorderly spike could trigger broader market volatility. Central bank intervention (Yield Curve Control adjustments) could distort market signals. |
Bloomberg Markets
Which Direction for Japan’s Economy? | Presen...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"Goldman Sachs sees the topics up over 10% in the next 12 months, while some Nikkay targets aim for 52,000 to 55,000... on 8 to 9% earnings growth." The macro backdrop of wage growth (>5%) and GDP recovery (~1%) provides fundamental support for equity valuations to expand despite the tightening cycle. LONG Japanese broad market indices to capture the earnings growth and reflationary cycle. Wage growth missing targets or a spike in bond yields destabilizing the fiscal situation. |
Bloomberg Markets
Which Direction for Japan’s Economy? | Presen...
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